Hope, Hedging, and High Stakes: Inside the White House’s Ukraine Strategy

The White House’s current strategy on Ukraine is a complex mix of hope, hedging, and high-stakes diplomacy. It is simultaneously pushing for a best-case scenario while acknowledging the possibility of failure.
The hope is embodied in the push for a quick peace summit. The administration is expressing public optimism that a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy can be arranged within two weeks and can lead to a breakthrough. President Trump has voiced his belief that a deal is possible.
The hedging is evident in Trump’s own words. His admission that Putin “doesn’t want to make a deal” is a clear acknowledgement that the initiative might fail. The ongoing threat of more sanctions also serves as a hedge, providing a backup plan if diplomacy falters.
The high stakes are clear to all. A successful summit could end a devastating war. A failure could lead to prolonged conflict and increased tensions. As the White House navigates this complex landscape, President Zelenskyy is preparing to talk territory, and allies are working to build a framework for lasting security.