Escalation Economics: Trump’s Plan to Raise the Financial Stakes

President Donald Trump has unveiled a plan of “escalation economics,” designed to dramatically raise the financial stakes for Russia and its key partner, China, in the hope of forcing an end to the war in Ukraine. The strategy relies on a massive, coordinated escalation of economic pressure from the entire NATO alliance.
The first step in this escalation is to move from partial energy sanctions to a complete oil embargo by all NATO members. Trump has made this a condition for further U.S. sanctions, seeking to plug the holes that have allowed billions in energy revenue to continue flowing to Moscow.
The second, and more significant, escalation is to open a new economic front against China. The proposed 50% to 100% tariffs, imposed by NATO as a bloc, would represent a quantum leap in the economic war, penalizing Beijing on a massive scale for its support of the Kremlin.
This strategy is a high-risk gamble. By escalating the economic conflict to this degree, Trump hopes to make the cost of continuing the war unbearable for Moscow. However, it also risks a severe global economic backlash, potentially triggering a recession or a wider trade war.